You don't know in advance what is the 'noise' so you can't associate a process that creates the 'noise'. It's the basic problem with shot noise, - it is the actuality - yet our 'expectation' is a smoothly graduated analog scene - part of where the quantum world diverges from what we expect.
Can't agree with that. If the 'expected value' was just the mean, we'd call it the 'mean value'. That's one of the problems facing NR - if the expected value was just the mean (over some period) then NR would be easy - but actually we have an expectation that is something different. That becomes particularly problematic when the photon counts are low enough that there isn't a statistically significant mean.